Weekly Investment Update

The US labor market will be in focus this week as ADP will report their estimate of payrolls in March followed by weekly data regarding initial and continuing claims for unemployment insurance on Thursday, which all leads up to the official March employment report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. As of this writing, surveys of economists anticipate that the US labor market will continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and recession. While initial and continuing claims for unemployment insurance are expected to remain elevated relative to long-term averages, they have been declining and are well-below the levels witnessed in 2020. The headline unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.0% from 6.2% last month, and 650,000 net new jobs are expected to be added.

Total US Non-Farm Payrolls

Line graph depicting total US non-farm payrolls from January 2000 to January 2021

Source: Bloomberg

Key Economic Releases This Week

Day Report Period Consensus Est. Previous
Wed., March 31 ADP Employment Report March 560,000 117,000
Thurs., April 1 Initial Unemployment Claims Week of 3/27/21 670,000 684,000
Thurs., April 1 Continuing Unemployment Claims Week of 3/20/21 3.75 million 3.87 million
Friday, April 2 Nonfarm Payrolls March 630,000 379,000
Friday, April 2 Unemployment Rate March 6.0% 6.2%
Source: Bloomberg

Asset Class Returns

Category Representative Index YTD 2021 Full Year 2020
Global Equity MSCI All-Country World 4.5% 16.3%
US Large Cap Equity  S&P 500  6.2% 18.4%
US Small Cap Equity  Russell 2000 12.7% 20.0%
Foreign Developed Equity MSCI EAFE 3.7% 7.8%
Emerging Market Equity MSCI Emerging Markets 1.6% 18.3%
US High Yield Fixed Income ICE BofAML High Yield Bond 0.6% 6.2%
US Fixed Income Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond -3.3% 7.5%
Cash Equivalents ICE BofAML 0-3 Mo Deposit 0.0% 0.5%
Source: Morningstar as of March 26, 2021

Prices & Interest Rates

Representative Index Current Year-End 2020
S&P 500 3,975 3,749
Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 33,073 30,497
NASDAQ 13,139 12,886
Crude Oil (US WTI) $60.97 $48.52
Gold $1,732 $1,893
US Dollar 92.77 89.94
2 Year Treasury 0.14% 0.13%
10 Year Treasury 1.67% 0.93%
30 Year Treasury 2.37% 1.65%
Source: Bloomberg, US Treasury as of March 26, 2021

Past performance may not be representative of future results.  All investments are subject to loss.  Forecasts regarding the market or economy are subject to a wide range of possible outcomes.  The views presented in this market update may prove to be inaccurate for a variety of factors.  These views are as of the date listed above and are subject to change based on changes in fundamental economic or market-related data.  Please contact your Financial Advisor in order to complete an updated risk assessment to ensure that your investment allocation is appropriate.   

An Independent Firm of OneAscent Financial

Copyright © Sovereign Financial

Form CRS          |          Form ADV Part 2A          |          Legal Disclosure