Weekly Investment Update
This week, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. Based upon the list of priorities communicated so far, the administration appears focused on ramping up vaccine distribution and economic relief in his first few days in office. Mr. Biden is requesting that Congress approve $1.9 trillion in relief, which includes:
- $1,400 per person in direct payments to households (subject to income limitations)
- $400 per week in supplemental unemployment insurance benefits
- Expanding the child tax credit from $2,000 to $3,000 for this year
On balance, aid to households comprises roughly half of the plan’s cost while much of the rest is aimed at vaccine distribution as well as supporting state and local governments who have seen their tax receipts decline.[1]
The new administration faces challenges on several fronts as it settles into office. Most pressing, Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are near all-time highs in the US.
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Johns Hopkins CSSE, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of January 12, 2021.
Key Economic Releases This Week
| Day | Report | Period | Consensus Est. | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jan. 21 | Building Permits (annual rate) | December | 1.60 million | 1.64 million |
| Thursday, Jan. 21 | Housing Starts (annual rate) | December | 1.56 million | 1.55 million |
| Friday, Jan. 22 | Existing Home Sales (annual rate) | December | 6.55 million | 6.69 million |
| Friday, Jan. 22 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) | January | 56.5 | 57.1 |
| Friday, Jan. 22 | Markit US Services PMI (preliminary) | January | 53.4 | 54.8 |
Source: Bloomberg
Asset Class Returns
| Category | Representative Index | YTD 2021 | Full Year 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Equity | MSCI All-Country | 1.5% | 16.3% |
| US Large Cap Equity | S&P 500 | 0.4% | 18.4% |
| US Small Cap Equity | Russell 2000 | 7.5% | 20.0% |
| Foreign Developed Equity | MSCI EAFE | 1.8% | 7.8% |
| Emerging Market Equity | MSCI Emerging Markets | 5.2% | 18.3% |
| US High Yield Fixed Income | ICE BofAML High Yield | 0.4% | 6.2% |
| US Fixed Income | Barclays Aggregate Bond | -0.8% | 7.5% |
| Cash Equivalents | ICE BofAML 0-3 Mo Deposit | 0.0% | 0.5% |
Source: Morningstar
As of January 15, 2021
Prices & Interest Rates
| Representative Index | Current | Year-End 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 3,768 | 3,749 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. | 30,814 | 30,497 |
| NASDAQ | 12,999 | 12,886 |
| Crude Oil (US WTI) | $52.33 | $48.52 |
| Gold | $1,832 | $1,893 |
| US Dollar | 90.77 | 89.94 |
| 2 Year Treasury | 0.13% | 0.13% |
| 10 Year Treasury | 1.11% | 0.93% |
| 30 Year Treasury | 1.85% | 1.65% |
Source: Bloomberg, US Treasury
As of January 15, 2021
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