Key Events: Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly
Starship’s fiery crash may serve as a metaphor for the economy; the launch was viewed as a success despite an eventual crash.
Likewise, while the SVB blowup was striking, the banking crisis has not yet led to a full-scale credit crunch, despite a rising number of bankruptcies and more difficult credit conditions.
Market Review: Slight declines
Markets were relatively calm this week. The S&P 500 lost just 0.1%, while smaller-cap stocks and bonds finished with slight gains. Emerging market stocks lost 1.1% for the week.
High grade bonds were down slightly, while high-yield lost ground due to heightened fears of a credit crunch.
Outlook: Feeling the effects, but looking past the slowdown
As the chart below shows, the number of bankruptcies is rising, and it’s slowing the economy. Rising S&P valuations increase the chance of a negative market reaction to bad news, and the economy is showing signs of instability: profits are down, mortgage rates remain high, and credit remains difficult to obtain.
The banking crisis has not, however, led to further banking failures. It’s possible the damage remains contained to SVB, which had very unique factors facilitating its fall.
As we look toward the most anticipated recession in history.We are wise to expect a bumpy ride – both in the economic data and in the markets. While this week’s market action was tame, we are positioned for volatility and ready to take advantage of market weakness. OneAscent portfolios are diversified, and we remain disciplined in our balanced portfolio allocation.
ii Sources: Bloomberg US Corporate Credit Crunch Means Bankruptcies, Rising Defaults (bloomberg.com)
iii Sources: Bloomberg What’s Happening in the World Economy: The Most-Anticipated Recession Ever – Bloomberg