Since 1987, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has published survey results of investors that simply asks the question, “What direction do AAII members feel the stock market will be in the next six months?” While the results are often mixed, the survey could be utilized by portfolio managers to identify periods of excessive optimism or pessimism regarding the stock market.

The University of Michigan released preliminary April results for its Survey of Consumers. The measure is based on surveys of households (“consumers”) about their current financial conditions as well as expectations for their future and the future of the economy in general.

The unique nature of this most recent recession, marked by a very sharp contraction in economic activity due to government mandated limits on activity followed by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as a quick economic reopening, may have potentially created some logistical challenges. In other words, factories and other key elements of the global supply chain may have shut down for economic or health-related reasons, and now must get back online quickly to support significant demand stemming from cash rich households and businesses.

The US labor market will be in focus this week as ADP will report their estimate of payrolls in March followed by weekly data regarding initial and continuing claims for unemployment insurance on Thursday, which all leads up to the official March employment report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. As of this writing, surveys of economists anticipate that the US labor market will continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and recession.

Last Thursday the Conference Board released their monthly composite of leading economic indicators (“LEIs”). The composite tracks a wide range of economic activity including manufacturing, employment, housing, stock prices, credit conditions, interest rates, and consumer expectations.

Markets continued their climb last week with the S&P 500 once again reaching all-time highs and now within striking distance of 4,000. For now, market leadership has shifted from the large technology-related companies to more cyclical businesses such as financials and energy.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both rose approximately 1 percent last week as investors tracked progress in Washington toward another round of economic stimulus. As of this writing, the $1.9 trillion bill has been approved by the Senate, and is now back with the House of Representatives for final vote this week before going to President, Joe Biden, for signature.