If there was any question regarding whether investors bought in to the Federal Reserve’s narrative of inflation being transitory, it was answered last week. Despite the US Consumer Price Index (a common measure of inflation) rising to nearly 5% year-over-year, an increase not seen since 2008, bond markets barely reacted.

Equity markets rose slightly last week during the shortened Memorial Day holiday week (the S&P 500 was up 0.6% while the MSCI ACWI index was up 0.7%), with the majority of the gains occurring on Friday. The big news on Friday was provided by the Labor Department which reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 559,000 jobs in May, well short of the 675,000 jobs expected.

While equity markets were down slightly last week (the S&P 500 index lost -0.4%), it has still been a relatively strong start to the year for stocks, in general. The S&P 500, which is a proxy for large-cap US stocks, and the MSCI All Country World Index, a proxy for global large and mid-cap stocks, have gained 10.6% and 8.6%, respectively, so far in 2021.

The S&P 500 index fell 1.4% last week, with the consumer discretionary and technology sectors leading the decline amid worries about increasing consumer and producer prices. The market benchmark ended the week at 4,174, down from last Friday's closing level of 4,233, which was a record closing high.

The labor market has continued its recovery, though the total number of employed Americans is still well-below pre-pandemic levels. In early May, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released their monthly assessment of labor market conditions.

Since 1987, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has published survey results of investors that simply asks the question, “What direction do AAII members feel the stock market will be in the next six months?” While the results are often mixed, the survey could be utilized by portfolio managers to identify periods of excessive optimism or pessimism regarding the stock market.

The University of Michigan released preliminary April results for its Survey of Consumers. The measure is based on surveys of households (“consumers”) about their current financial conditions as well as expectations for their future and the future of the economy in general.

The unique nature of this most recent recession, marked by a very sharp contraction in economic activity due to government mandated limits on activity followed by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as a quick economic reopening, may have potentially created some logistical challenges. In other words, factories and other key elements of the global supply chain may have shut down for economic or health-related reasons, and now must get back online quickly to support significant demand stemming from cash rich households and businesses.

The US labor market will be in focus this week as ADP will report their estimate of payrolls in March followed by weekly data regarding initial and continuing claims for unemployment insurance on Thursday, which all leads up to the official March employment report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. As of this writing, surveys of economists anticipate that the US labor market will continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and recession.

Last Thursday the Conference Board released their monthly composite of leading economic indicators (“LEIs”). The composite tracks a wide range of economic activity including manufacturing, employment, housing, stock prices, credit conditions, interest rates, and consumer expectations.