We monitor the backdrop for investing in risk assets across three primary pillars: economic conditions, asset prices, and technical considerations such as investor sentiment. On balance, we still believe that conditions are favorable for accepting investment risk, but above average asset class valuations and the potential for above-trend inflation should give pause.

US stock market indices, such as the S&P 500, touched new all-time highs in April as economic, household, and business data all continued to imply that the recovery from the COVID-19 economic recession remains on track and stable. As of this writing, nearly 45% of US adults have received at least one vaccine dose, and the rollout of the vaccine campaign in the US has led to a stark divergence in the performance of various equity sectors and industries since late 2020.

US stock market indices, such as the S&P 500, touched new all-time highs in March as economic, household, and business data all continued to imply that the recovery from the COVID-19 economic recession remains on track and stable. As of this writing, more than 167 million vaccine doses have been administered in the US, leading to the full vaccination of 62.4 million Americans (19% of the US population).

Risk assets generally rose in February with both US large-cap and global equity indices advancing 2%-3%. The US economic recovery has continued with improvements in the labor market, corporate earnings, and gross domestic product (GDP).

January was an eventful month with the inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States, the beginning of corporate earnings season, and the continued fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. For the month, the global stocks (as represented by the MSCI ACWI index) fell 0.5% while US large caps (S&P 500 index) fell 1%.

Markets wrapped up the year on a positive note, as the S&P 500 gained 3.8 percent during December and closed the year up over 18%. After declining nearly 34 percent in less than five weeks in the spring when the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated, the large cap US stock index spent the majority of the remainder of 2020 recovering.

Investors were rewarded in November as several stock indices provided double-digit monthly returns. Two stories in particular seemed to have driven the stock market surge; significant progress toward COVID-19 vaccinations and the diminishing uncertainty related to the US Presidential election outcome.

Risk assets generally fell in October as hopes for additional stimulus before the election faded and investors saw a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in many parts of the world. The S&P 500 lost 2.7% during the month resulting in a 2.8% gain year-to-date . Tomorrow is the US Presidential Election, and hopefully we will have a clear outcome that evening or shortly thereafter.

Risk assets generally fell in September as investors continued to monitor the COVID-19 global pandemic and its economic impact. The S&P 500 lost 3.8% during the month resulting in a 5.6% gain year-to-date .

Risk assets rose sharply in August as investors digested US economic and corporate earnings data for the second quarter of 2020 and tracked the progress of a potential new stimulus bill from Washington. The S&P 500 returned 7.2% during the month resulting in a nearly 10% return year-to-date.